some economists therefore expect attempts to mitigate the negative impact of rate cuts by excusing banks from negative rates on some excess reserves 【重点词汇excusing xx from xxx ; excess reserves 】even then rates may not far off the lower bound 。
analysts at bnp paribas, a bank, think they can fall by at most 0.4 percentage points before that moment comes the limited space is why some economists also expect the bank to restart QE 【量化宽松政策】 in the later of the year
A from morgan stanely a wall street firm expects the banks to announce monthly purchases of government and corporate debt of 45bn euro .But the bank's self-imposed limited on the share of country's soveregin debt it can own ,of 33%, means this pace probably cannot sustained beyond a year ,said pnb Paris bank.
this ceiling would need to be lifted if any expansion of QE is seem credible to the investors, reckons Spyros Andreoulos of bnp paribas. Though QE's legality is questioned in germany, in december the eu court of justice ruled that the ECB was acting legally ,give it the room to rise it into 13.5% .appearing to give it the room to rises its limit up to 50 %.
the case returns to german courts at the end of this month, but the judges are expected bow to the ECJ 【 bow to sb】in any cases the bank would need to think another self-imposed rule , said Spyros. That it avoid holding shares of individual securities large enough to sway the outcomes of investor votes on any future debt restructuring
even with all this, the ECB's ability to cope with a serious downturn would be limited. Even Mr. draghi assure the markets he had the firepower . He warned that without fiscal support monetray risked being slow to boost the economy, with possible unwanted side-effects .negative borrowing costs across many member states make the case for dusting off 【to prepare something for use, especially after it has not been used for a long time】 tools even more obvious but the europe's governments guard their ammunition more jealously than central bankers do
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