英文早读第251篇，选自巴菲特年度信，友才翻译。
The second option is much simpler: just keep writing business regardless of rate levels and whopping prospective underwriting losses, thereby maintaining the present levels of premiums, assets and liabilities - and then pray for a better day, either for underwriting or for bond prices. There is much criticism in the trade press of "cash flow" underwriting; i.e., writing business regardless of prospective underwriting losses in order to obtain funds to invest at current high interest rates. This second option might properly be termed "asset maintenance" underwriting - the acceptance of terrible business just to keep the assets you now have.
第二种选择要简单得多：无论利率水平如何，也不管预期的承保损失有多么巨大，只管继续开展业务，从而维持当前的保费、资产和负债水平，然后就祈求能有更好的日子到来，要么是承保业务情况好转，要么是债券价格上涨。行业报刊上有很多对 “现金流” 承保方式的批评，也就是说，不顾预期的承保损失而开展业务，目的是获取资金以便能按当前的高利率进行投资。这第二种选择或许可以恰当地被称为 “资产维持” 承保方式，即仅仅为了保住现有的资产而接受糟糕的业务。
Of course you know which option will be selected. And it also is clear that as long as many large insurers feel compelled to choose that second option, there will be no better day for underwriting. For if much of the industry feels it must maintain premium volume levels regardless of price adequacy, all insurers will have to come close to meeting those prices. Right behind having financial problems yourself, the next worst plight is to have a large group of competitors with financial problems that they can defer by a “sell‐at‐any‐price” policy.
当然，你知道会选择哪种方案。而且很明显，只要许多大型保险公司觉得不得不选择第二种方案，承保业务的境况就不会好转。因为如果保险行业的很大一部分公司认为，无论保费定价是否合理，它们都必须维持保费规模水平，那么所有保险公司都将不得不尽可能地接受那些不合理的价格。除了自己陷入财务困境之外，其次糟糕的情况就是有一大批竞争对手陷入财务困境，而这些对手可以通过 “不惜一切代价销售” 的策略来延缓困境的爆发。
We mentioned earlier that companies that were unwilling ‐ for any of a number of reasons, including public reaction, institutional pride, or protection of stated net worth ‐ to sell bonds at price levels forcing recognition of major losses might find themselves frozen in investment posture for a decade or longer. But, as noted, that’s only half of the problem. Companies that have made extensive commitments to long‐term bonds may have lost, for a considerable period of time, not only many of their investment options, but many of their underwriting options as well.
我们之前提到过，有些公司由于种种原因，包括公众反应、机构的自尊心，或者是为了保护账面净资产价值等，不愿意在会导致确认巨额亏损的价格水平上出售债券，这些公司可能会发现自己在长达十年甚至更长的时间里都无法灵活调整投资策略。但是，正如我们所指出的，这仅仅是问题的一半。那些大量持有长期债券的公司，在相当长的一段时间里，可能不仅失去了许多投资选择的机会，而且在承保业务方面也失去了很多选择的余地。
97.whopping：巨大的；庞大的
98.plight：困境；苦难
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